Friday, December 29, 2006

Predictions and Analyzations - Democrats

Now that former Senator Edwards has announced his candidacy for President of the United States, I'm going to start making a few predictions about him and his Democratic opponents. Since I'm no longer working for Senator Clinton, or at least for now...I'm going to let some of my words flow.

Here I will post my prediction that Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will announce their candidacies for president as well, but each are most probably trying to pick different dates with minimally a week apart. This is because each candidate wants their own spotlight.

Tom Vilsack was the first to announce candidacy, and him being the Iowa governor, may help him in the Iowa primary. Though by no means is he considered a front-runner. Vilsack's lack of celebrity status will hurt him as well as him not being the best looking candidate, which is actually something that's subconsciously very important to voters. He has little name recognition nationally, but governors have been able to get over that. Also, his slogan "V for Vilsack" is relatively catchy and I think people will remember that.

John Edwards announced in a very non-traditional way. It was not in the Capitol, but in New Orleans, at a job site where Edwards helped to repair someone's house. He has a few things going for him. He ran once, was defeated, and I'm sure he learned a lot about why he lost. Secondly, he was picked and nominated as the Vice Presidential candidate in the 2004, which gives him some more political pull and celebrity status. This is name recognition at its best. Supposedly he has a different strategy, but is still going to emphasize his "two americas" theme, which is obvious by his usage of the hurricane Katrina disaster as a prime example. Edwards reminds me of the Kennedy family from the 60's and 70's. He's younger, good looking, rich, and smiles like it. Not that it's a bad thing, he just looks like one of the elite.

Dennis Kucinich has announced candidacy, I believe. He has some slight name recognition, but that will not help him. In my opinion, Mr. Kucinich is a really good person, and knows a lot about policy, but does not have what it takes to be President. If he did we would have seen him as a shining star in the Democratic Primaries. He probably won't win any states in the primaries. He is a non-issue. Sorry Dennis!

Hillary Clinton has been setting up a presidential run for countless months. She set up numerous exploratory committees and has really basically put everything in place to make her the #1 front-running candidate for the President of the United States. She already has celebrity status and better name recognition than anyone who can be on the ticket. After all, she was the first lady for eight years and has been a senator for six years already with also having won her re-election in a landslide. Almost every citizen knows who the first lady is, and everyone knows who Bill Clinton is. Having him as her husband and as the possible first gentleman is quite an advantage to have as well. New Yorkers just voted her back in to the Senate, and she and her campaign staff must realize a possible increase of anti-clinton sentiment when she announces a presidential run. It will be an interesting campaign strategy that the staff will have to pursue to overcome a decrease in popularity from anti-clinton sentiment. Some people may see her re-election to senate being used as a stepping stone for her political gain. I'm not sure what to think. She looks better now than she did many years ago, so that may help her, not to mention the fact that she is a woman and it is time to see if we are ready for the first female president.

Barack Obama is my hero. I think he is an excellent role model for any child. That being said, his popularity is remarkable. If one thinks about it, he was not even elected Illinois Senator yet and he delivered the 2004 DNC keynote speech. That's pretty impressive to be able to so with party politics as they are today. That rose him to superstardom for Democrats, and now Republicans are just starting to hear his name and know who he is too. I doubt many Republicans watched the 2004 Democratic National Convention on television. Obama's integrity, smarts, leadership, and his eloquence are four things that have made this man who he is today. He also set up many many avenues to make his candidacy easier. The Senator seems like an amazing presidential candidate to me, but I think the color of his skin will be a problem for too many people. Much of America is still racist and I am unsure if America as an aggregate is ready for a black president. One thing he really has going for him is he's young and good looking. That should help him as well. He is still a front-runner with Hillary Clinton and possibly John Edwards.

Now for the true predictions. I think Hillary will get the Democratic nomination and will pick Barack as her Vice Presidential candidate. Since he's a Senator, he knows the Senate already and will know how to do his job pretty well if elected. This will also set him up for a stronger presidential bid being the vice president once one or two both terms are over. That would be interesting: the first female president and first black vice president. I think Edwards does have a chance though, but I feel he's much harder for me to predict.